Nevada Confidential

   A few years back, a political candidate did a brilliant job in a televised debate by using the slogan from a popular Wendy’s TV ad.  His opponent had spoken of having “new ideas” - he leaned forward and said, "When I hear your new ideas, I'm reminded of that ad: 'Where's the beef?'"

   Being a policy nerd, I actually had looked forward to reading Rory Reid’s 30-page vision for Nevada:  “Virtual Crossroads.”

   I regret to report that, after reviewing it in detail, I not only don’t see the beef – I don’t see the bun – all I hear is the sizzle.

   While it presents a sensible, generally-accepted diagnosis of the problems Nevada faces – it offers no substantive prescription for a cure.

   Sure, it points in a general direction, but that is about as useful as a doctor telling you to “eat well; get plenty of rest; and drink lots of fluids.” 

   The “specifics” he quotes from it are usually:

 ·    “we need a long-term plan for infrastructure rebuilding”  Sure. Yet, the fundamental problem isn’t that we need more plans drawn up - the Nevada Department of Transportation, as well as each county and city transportation department, have file cabinets full of plans.  We need the resources and the commitment to move forward now.  Enough of this planning, already.  Let’s salvage our infrastructure before it deteriorates any further – and let’s put people to work.  Now – not after another round of planning.

 ·    “perform performance review of state government to reduce wasteful spending”  That’s a rather obvious observation.  Every agency of state government has been repeatedly doing that.  It is not that more couldn’t be done.  But, the impression that we can fund adequate services in Nevada by just cutting out the “fat” in the state government is totally naive and unrealistic.  This is unproductive, cynical pandering for votes.  A real leader tells it like it is.

 ·    “provide tax credits to businesses who hire new workers”   Here the vision statement points to a recent Colorado initiative to give businesses that create at least 20 new jobs a 50% credit for the taxes paid on each new employee.  With their system, that equals a credit of about 3.8% - which is a reasonable savings.  However, in Nevada, our payroll tax is only 0.5% - cutting that 50% would give a typical per-job savings of $50 per year.  Show me any company that will hire a new person because of a fifty-dollar savings!  This is not how you transform our economy - this is fluff.

   I could go on-and-on critiquing each section.  Many simply draw the practical question:  “But where is the money for this going to come from?” to which you won’t find any answers.  At best, you hear the old refrain “Growth will pay for Growth.”  If we haven’t learned anything in this painful economic slowdown, haven’t we learned that is not true?  It’s a Ponzi scheme – a few did well - and the rest of us taxpayers are left on the hook.

   Ok, we are at a Virtual Crossroads (who doubts that?) -- but the question is: “how should we move forward?”  Sizzle is not an acceptable answer.

   Since 2005, Nevada Confidential has been keeping you posted on who is talking about running and who others are talking about as candidates for office here in Nevada.

   When this year’s legislative session ended, we published our first take on who might be running in 2010.  Our early speculation was reasonably accurate on many races and rather wrong on others.  Like, who would have guessed there would be 15 announced candidates against Harry Reid by the end of the year?  Plus, we were rather certain Barbra Buckley would run for Governor and that Brian Sandoval wouldn’t.  So, based on that experience, you can be near certain that the list below will NOT be accurate after the filing deadlines.

   Those listed in Bold have announced they are a candidate and/or formed an official campaign committee.  The name of a candidate usually contains a link to her or his campaign website.

   As you will see, these folks who have publically committed to run are about the only ones on this new list.  We now have such a plethora of read-deal candidates; there is simply not much room for idle speculation.  Well, apart from when it is related to Mayor Oscar Goodman.  Why the exception?  Because: (1) he’s Oscar Goodman; and (2) whether he takes advantage of it or not, he has the unique opportunity this year to dramatically change politics in Nevada & nationally.

   Stay tuned for all the exciting details. If you are aware of others who should be on this list, please post a comment below – or drop us an email.

CONGRESS

United States Senate

2004: Sen. Harry Reid (D) 61%, Richard Ziser (R) 35% 

Democrats

• U.S. Senator Harry Reid

Republicans 

• Sharron Angle  - Ex-State Assemblywoman for 4 terms, Businesswoman
• Mark E. Amodei – State Senator
• John Chachas - Investment Banker
• Greg Dagani – Ex State Board of Education member
• Chuck Flume – Dentist
• Chuck Kozak - Attorney
• Sue Lowden – Ex-State GOP Chair, Ex-State Sen. & Businesswoman
• Mark Noonan - Retired
• Bill Parson – Former Senior Project Manager, Nevada Test Site
• Terry Suominen – Businessperson
• Danny Tarkanian – Businessperson and ‘06 GOP nominee for Sec of State
• Robin L. Titus  – Physician
• Mike Wiley - Ex-Radio Talk Show Host, Ex-Democrat & '94 Candidate in Florida

Libertarians  

• Jim Duensing - Radio Talk Show Host, Attorney & Frequent Candidate

 Independents

• Jeff Durbin – Businessperson

1st Congressional District

2008: Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) 68%, Kenneth Wegner (R) 28% 

Democrats

• Congresswoman Shelley Berkley

Republicans

• Craig Lake – Retail Store Owner
• Kenneth Wegner – 2008 GOP nominee

Independents

2nd Congressional District

2008: Rep. Dean Heller (R) 52%, Jill Derby (D) 41% 

Democrats

• Paul Reeves - Concert Organizer
• Jack Schofield - Ex-State Sen., Ex-State Rep., Developer, Educator & WWII Veteran
• Dems & progressives still openly recruiting for a candidate

Republicans

• Congressman Dean Heller

Independents

 

3rd Congressional District

2008: Dina Titus (D) 47%, Rep. Jon Porter (R) 42% 

Democrats

• Congresswoman Dina Titus
• Shanna Phillips

Republicans

• Joe Heck -  Ex-State Sen., Physician & Iraq War Veteran 
• Edward S. Bridges II  - Retired Air Force Colonel
• Rob Lauer – Real Estate Investor
• Eleanor "Ellie" Ahern - Independent Telecommunications Professional & Cong. Ron Paul supporter

Independents

• Brad Lord-Leutwyler -  Professor of Logic and Critical Thought at UNLV

 

STATE-WIDE OFFICES

Governor

Democrats

• Rory Reid - Clark County Commission Chair
• Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman

          Note:  Goodman is currently a registered Democrat.  If that does not change in December 2009, he will only be eligible to run for office in 2010 as a Democrat.

Republicans

• Governor Jim Gibbons
• Mike Montandon  - North Las Vegas Mayor & Banker
• Brian Sandoval - -Ex-US District Court Judge, Ex-Attorney General & Ex-State Assemblyman

Independents

• Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman
• Chrissy Israel Mazzeo - former Wynn Las Vegas cocktail waitress

Lieutenant Governor

Democrats

• Jessica Sferrazza - Reno Councilwoman
• Robert Randazzo – Corporate Management Company Owner
• Robert E. (Bob) Goodman – Former Dir of NV Dept of Economic Dev
• Robert 'Bob' Unger - ’06 Dem nominee for LtGov
• Steven Horsford - State Senator
• Ruben Kihuen - State Assemblyperson 
• Plus all those mentioned above as possible candidates for Governor

 Republicans

• Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki
• Barbara Lee Woollen - came in 2^nd in ’06 GOP Primary for Lt. Gov.
• Plus all those mentioned as possible candidates for Governor on that page

 Independents

• Robert "Bob" Cashell – Mayor of Reno as possible running-mate for Oscar Goodman

Secretary of State

Democrats

• Secretary of State Ross Miller

Republicans

• Brian Scroggins – Outdoor Sign Contractor & former Clark County Republican Party Chairman who came in 2^nd in ’06 GOP Primary for SoS

Independents

Attorney General

Democrats

• Attorney General Catherine Cortez-Masto

Republicans

Independents

 

State Treasurer

Democrats

• State Treasurer Kate Marshall

Republicans

Independents

State Controller

Democrats

• State Controller Kim Wallin

Republicans

Independents

     Sometimes you can gain significant political insight just hanging out at home enjoying your favorite adult beverage and answering the telephone.  Actually, I nearly didn’t pick-up the call late Friday afternoon when I noticed Caller ID was blocked. But I did (since I have some dubious friends who have their ID blocked -- probably for good reason) and I began talking with a relatively professional interviewer from some generically-named political polling firm. 

    Naturally, I agreed to be interviewed – to let my opinions be heard and hoping to discern who was paying for a poll this far distant from any election. Once I established that I was, indeed, registered and voted frequently, the survey began with rather typical questions about what I saw as the important issues facing Nevada. Right off, I was intrigued when the structure suggested that the survey was state-wide in focus. I was quizzed on my opinions about a range of topics related to education – both K-12 and higher ed; how I well I thought this year’s Legislative Session did in addressing the state’s problems; and whether or not I thought the state was “balancing the budget by taking money from local government services I quickly jumped to the tentative conclusion that the poll was probably being done for Commissioner Rory Reid’s likely campaign for Governor.

    We soon were into a series of direct, horse-race questions about the upcoming election. “If the election was today and the candidates were Gov. Jim Gibbons and Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, who would you vote for?” I was asked. Next, the same with Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley as the Dem Nominee. After that, there were a couple questions about Reid and Buckley – including whether the fact that Reid might be running at the same time his father was on the ballot for U.S. Senate would make me more likely or less likely to vote for him.

    Now, I was even more convinced that it must be the campaigns of Buckley or Reid who had commissioned the poll.

    Then, the interviewer went back through the whole series of “who would you vote for” questions – but this time including the option of Independent Candidate Bob Cashell Mayor of Reno – followed by same questions but with the Independent being Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman.

    Well, they must be taking Oscar seriously!” I thought to myself.

    Next, there were a couple questions about my general attitude towards candidates who were not nominated by one of the two major parties.

    When the survey went so far as to ask whether I thought Goodman should be the nominee for Governor and Cashell the nominee for Lt. Gov or should it be Cashell/Goodman – I began to reassess my hasty conclusion.

    In retrospect, I would now hypothesize that the polling is actually being done by Friends of Goodman and Cashell - no other campaign would have reason to ask that last question.

    And I would conclude that the “Independent Option” isn’t just a whimsical hallucination of the Mayors. Rather, they are looking at it very analytically.

    Wouldn’t we all love to know what results this polling is showing? Such a candidacy would not only dramatically shake-up the races for Governor & Lt. Governor – but could spill over and affect the outcomes of the elections for other offices including, possibly both of our U.S. Senate seats.

Run Oscar Run!

    Let’s take all the speculation related to whether or not Sen. John Ensign will resign to the next logical step: what happens if he does?

    Procedures governing vacancies in the Senate were initially established by Article I, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution, later amended by paragraph 2 of the 17th Amendment. It says: “When vacancies happen in the representation of any State in the Senate, the executive authority of such State shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies: Provided that the legislature of any State may empower the executive thereof to make temporary appointments until the people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may direct.” with no restrictions on who the Governor can appoint other than that person be “qualified.” The appointee serves until the next regularly scheduled general election – which would be 2010 – when there would be an election to serve the two remaining years of Ensign’s term. This election would be held simultaneous with the race for the seat now held by Harry Reid. There would be election for a full six-year term in 2012.

    Could our troubled Governor appoint himself? Kind of – but not exactly. Here we would look to the precedent of 1945 when U.S. Sen. James Scrugham died.

    At the time, Edward P. Carville from Elko was our eighteenth Governor.  He was a Notre Dame Law School grad who had been elected district attorney and district judge of Elko County, and had served as the U.S. Attorney for Nevada from 1934 to 1938. Carville was elected governor as a Democrat in November 1938. He was reelected in 1942.

    When Sen. Scrugham died in office in July, 1945, Carville resigned as Governor. This enabled then-Lieutenant Governor and Acting Governor Vail Pittman to appoint Carville to the Senate vacancy.

    Carville served fewer than two years because when he ran for the office in the next regularly scheduled election (1946), his virtual self-appointment to the Senate became a major issue and he was defeated in the Democrat primary 55% to 45% by Berkeley Bunker. Bunker had, himself, served briefly in the U.S. Senate having been appointed to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Sen. Key Pittman (Vail’s brother) just a few days after Pittman had been reelected in 1940. (It has been rumored for years that Pittman actually had died before his final election, and that Democratic Party leaders kept his body on ice in a hotel bathtub until he was re-elected – but that is another story)

    Even though Bunker was highly respected – he had been Speaker of the Assembly and was celebrated as the first Southern Nevadan and first Nevada Mormon to hold national office – the bitter primary with Carville caused such a split that Bunker was defeated in the general election by Republican George Malone, a civil engineer who had twice before run for the U.S. Senate – losing by large margins (33% to 67% against Key Pittman in ’34 and 41% to 59% against Pat McCarran in 1944.

    The take-away from this history lesson to Gov. Gibbons is that it almost certainly would not be a rational strategy for him to resign and let indicted Lt. Gov Brian Krolicki appoint him to the Senate. But, then again, when has Gibbons ever been accused of having a rational strategy?